Pinpointed: Grammy Nominees 2026

By Bailey Tolentinio

With none of my personal favourite artists releasing music in the eligibility period for the upcoming 68th Annual Grammy Awards, I was able to evaluate the nominees without bias, for the very first time in my life. In the past couple weeks since the nominees were announced, I took the time to sit down and listen to the albums, songs, and artists nominated in the four main categories. So, without further ado, here are my Pinpointed opinions on the Grammys’ view of this past year in music.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Who I predict will win: The Marías

…and I would be delighted by this. The band is fantastic, with a unique sound that took the music scene by storm in the later end of 2024, into the entirety of 2025. It’s a sound no one else has nailed, with consistently beautiful production and a seamless blend of Spanish and English in their lyrics. With the music following the tumultuous relationship/breakup between the lead singer and drummer, audiences are invested in the same way Fleetwood Mac fans were with Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks, decades ago. The band has no nominations in any other major categories, which feels like a massive oversight to me. Furthermore, the Grammys has a history of giving this award to artists who are far from debuting recently, but had their ‘breakthrough’ moment in the eligibility period (most recently Chappell Roan in 2025)… So, I’m guessing this one is theirs for the taking.  

Runner-up prediction: Olivia Dean

British singer-songwriter Olivia Dean is kind of a mix of Amy Winehouse and Adele, but happier. She’s got a chance because her vocal performance is stunning and unique; but not as unique as that of my predicted winners (I mean, I likened her to two artists in the introductory sentence). However, much like Adele, I think she’s got a lasting career ahead of her. Her sound is more timeless than that of The Marías, so while I think she has a chance at this award, she may be more likely to see success in other categories in upcoming years. Her breakthrough album The Art of Loving came out after the eligibility period; so, if she doesn’t win this, she will probably have a chance at Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album for that, in 2027.

Who I want to win: Addison Rae

Addison has set up an iconic image for herself, but I think this might be her only chance to win a Grammy (which is why I would love to see this moment). She’ll likely fall out of mainstream conversation in the coming years and become a cult favourite with her next record, unless the public yearns for a revival of 2000s trashy pop. I think ‘Headphones On’ deserved a nomination in ‘Best Pop Vocal Performance’, but alas, this is the only nomination Addison received, and that is likely because her image as an artist has been more successful than the music itself.

Who should not win: sombr or Alex Warren

These were both such terrible entries, I couldn’t pick one. Alex Warren is hardly an artist, with his karaoke-esque hit ‘Ordinary’ captivating no audience other than the crowds at grocery stores. sombr has a chance to grow, so let’s not applaud him too soon, just for being a heartthrob. That’s really all he is, by the way — his sophomore breakthrough album has some of the worst lyricism I have ever seen: simple clauses which offer no more insight than the titles of the songs do, which are lauded as profound by teenage girls who have a crush on the kid… and I say this as a Harry Styles fan. Let’s let him go through one more breakup and see what music that brings us. He’s got something, but I’m not seeing it yet.

SONG OF THE YEAR

What I predict will win: ‘Manchild’ by Sabrina Carpenter

…and I most definitely do not want this to happen, but I really think it will. Sabrina has undoubtedly had a huge couple of years, yet she did not win Song of the Year for her smash-hit ‘Espresso’ (due only to harsh competition). The Grammys will want to reward her for her signature witty songwriting, even if it was done better on ‘Espresso’ and ‘Please Please Please’. This will be her pity-award, just as she hoped it would be. She basically released the same album as her breakthrough Short n’ Sweet, barely one year later. It’s just in a slightly different, more misogynistic and self-effacing packaging; and her unsupported claim that it’s a satire is just the type of thing that would work on the Grammys voting committee.

Runner-up prediction: ‘WILDFLOWER’ by Billie Eilish

This prediction is another one based upon the pity-award theory. HIT ME HARD AND SOFT was an incredible album, but won nothing at the 2025 Grammys because of the heavy competition. This entry was submitted upon a technicality; the album was released before the eligibility period, but this song was re-released as a single within the period. While I am not a fan of this loophole technique, I am aware that Billie is a Grammy Darling, and that they always give her the Grammys she least deserves… so what’s one more?

What I want to win: ‘WILDFLOWER’ by Billie Eilish

I hope my negativity in the above paragraph was not perceived as negativity towards the track. What I meant is that Billie never gets Grammys for her best works; she tends to get them for her mediocre moments, like ‘What Was I Made For?’ Similarly, the fate of HIT ME HARD AND SOFT might be that its only award will go to its worst song. When I say ‘worst’, though, that hardly means anything, because I love that album and believe it is skipless. I mean, nearly flawless. It deserved its flowers at the 2025 Grammys. This is not the ideal way for that to happen, but if it has to be this way, then so be it. 

What should not win: ‘Abracadabra’ by Lady Gaga

I don’t hate this song or think it’s necessarily awful, but the Grammys define SOTY as being an award given for ‘accomplishment in songwriting and composition’. Half of the chorus (and obviously, the title) is gibberish; and the rest of the lyrics are subpar. Furthermore, the composition is more catchy than it is impressive or award-worthy. The same exact things can be said for ‘APT’ by Rosé and Bruno Mars (another nominee in this category).

RECORD OF THE YEAR

What I predict will win: ‘Anxiety’ by Doechii

Though I don’t think this song was a fantastic use of sampling since it takes away all the best parts of ‘Somebody That I Used to Know’, I have to admit it was clever to rap over such a well-known melodic track. The production, engineering, and rap performance itself are all of a high caliber — and afterall, those three aspects are what the ‘Record of the Year’ award is meant to congratulate. 

Runner-up prediction: ‘DtMF’ by Bad Bunny

The production is amazing on this track, blending Latin pop seamlessly with mainstream pop sounds, making it more appealing to foreign ears like mine. The nostalgic sentiment of the song is very relevant to 2025 as we are living in a time of cynicism, and Bad Bunny has gained much recognition in the past year, which I cannot imagine the Grammys would ignore. The only reason this song is not my top prediction for ROTY is that Bad Bunny won five awards at last week’s Latin Grammys. That said, he didn’t win the ROTY award at that ceremony… So, maybe they were saving it for this one!

What I want to win: ‘The Subway’ by Chappell Roan

This is literally the only song I had in my music library before sitting down to listen to all the nominees. This song is everything in my opinion, as someone who relates to the yearning of it all, and loves Dan Nigro’s production style. That said, I recognise that the repetitive outro of the song is more impactful when performed live. Audience reception of that outro is what made Chappell release a studio version in the first place; and if anything, that is where the production falls short. So, while I want this to win with all my heart, I don’t think it will; because it feels like a pity-nomination. If they genuinely planned on awarding this song, it would have gotten nominated for Song of the Year — the lyrical and melodic composition are far more impressive than the production in this instance. 

What should not win: ‘Manchild’ by Sabrina Carpenter

This song is the epitome of tired Jack Antonoff production. It is annoyingly crystal clear and disgustingly devoid of real/live instruments, the high note in the chorus rings painfully, and Sabrina’s contrived country twang comes off as a whine. Oh, and don’t get me started on the speak-singing. It’s “Stupid!” and “Useless!” if you ask me. This song was made to be a hit — and sure, that worked — but the production and engineering are nothing to write home about. It’s just what Antonoff does to every Sabrina song with a high note and long riff in the hook.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

The Grammys tend to give this most-coveted award to albums for one of the following two reasons: (1) Purely having such influence and/or so many recognisable singles that it shapes culture during the year of its release, or (2) Being of genuinely high quality as a body of work (rather than as a collection of big hits). The second instance happens in years when the first does not: when there is no clear winner. That may be due to a lack of a groundbreaking album that year, or due to an overabundance of such — in which case they avoid controversy and just go for a curveball. This happened in 2022 when We Are by Jon Batiste won over a handful of fan favourites, including Sour by Olivia Rodrigo and Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish. 

What I predict will win AND what I want to win: Let God Sort Em Out by Clipse, Pusha T, Malice 

I think this will win as a result of the curveball method explained above. I was also really surprised by how good this album was. I don’t think I will listen to it again as it’s not my personal taste, but I sat through it with ease, and that says a lot. I think it will sweep the Hip-Hop/Rap categories if it doesn’t win AOTY, but I would love to see it win this award just because of its quality. The collaboration between Clipse, Pusha T, and Malice is seamless and thought-through; as are the tracklist, the concept, the lyrics, and the production. I also think this has a big chance at winning because it is so random. I had heard nothing about this album, nor any singles from it, until the nominations were announced. It almost makes me think : Why would this be on the AOTY list unless the committee planned on giving it the win?

Runner-up prediction: CHROMAKOPIA by Tyler, The Creator

Out of all the albums I sat down and listened to, this was the strongest, sonically and conceptually. However, heavily conceptual albums have historically struggled to win this category without a big radio hit. I mean, Pink Floyd’s The Wall didn’t manage, and Queen’s A Night At The Opera didn’t even get a nomination. If Let God Sort Em Out wins as I predict, then this one has a big shot at Best Rap Album.

What should not win: Man’s Best Friend by Sabrina Carpenter

I think my previous words on her other nominations say enough about why I don’t personally think this album should win. However, on an objective scale, this album should not win Album of the Year when it was released one day before the eligibility period closed. That’s just ridiculous and clearly done on purpose. It’s not album of the year if it’s only been out for 2 months.

EXTRA NOTES

1. If it were up to me, ‘Nobody New’ by The Marías would have been nominated for (and won) Record of the Year, so that Olivia Dean or Addison Rae could win Best New Artist. Unfortunately, that is the only category in which The Marías are nominated, and they were way too impactful this year to go home empty-handed.

2. I’m not as mad about SWAG by Justin Bieber being nominated as everyone else online seems to be. At least he did something new to challenge himself, unlike Sabrina Carpenter. He just fell short of successfully melding Soul/R&B with his signature Pop sound, because he used too much autotune and not enough live instruments. There was lots of potential in this album, its highlight being ‘DEVOTION’. 

3. The only reason ‘luther’ by Kendrick Lamar and SZA doesn’t have a chance at ROTY or SOTY is because Kendrick won in both categories last year.

Of course, I may be wrong about all of this and Bad Bunny will sweep. I tried to apply some previous statistics to my reasoning, but the Grammys are ultimately pretty unpredictable, as much as I would like to think I’ve figured them out after years of obsessively engaging with the nominations lists. This guessing game never gets easier. Nonetheless, I am at the edge of my seat, awaiting the ceremony in February to reveal whether any of my guesses were right.